Bitcoin whales continue to purchase BTC, hinting at an $80K market rebound, but panic turns smaller investors off.
Large-volume investors find Bitcoin (BTC) at $80,000 appealing. Darkfost, a contributor to CryptoQuant, stated in a blog post that the percentage of the top 10 inflows to Binance done by whales has decreased.
He said monitoring whales’ behavior offers insights into future market movements.
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Bitcoin Whales and Investors’ Actions
Since Binance manages the most significant trade volumes, analyzing the BTC exchange whale ratio on this crypto exchange offers a valuable perspective on whale activity across other crypto platforms. Since this exchange’s BTC/USD ratio reached its most recent all-time high in mid-January, the whale ratio has shown a broad downward trend.
Data from CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics tool, shows that Bitcoin whales on Binance are exerting less selling pressure. A drop in this ratio has usually preceded bullish movements, while a rise in this ratio has often been a prelude to brief price corrections or periods of consolidation.
If this pattern of declining selling pressure persists, the present downturn may end, leading to a market recovery. Whales and larger businesses with at least 10 BTC have started amassing coins this month.
Buyers Show Reluctance Despite the Drop in the Bitcoin Whales Selling Pressure
Meanwhile, the analytics firm Glassnode noted poor demand for BTC at its current price of $80,000. The firm’s report also discussed the capital flows by short-term holders (STHs) and speculative organizations (those that keep coins for a maximum of six months).
The report showed that BTC holders between one and three months have a higher cost basis than holders between one week and one month. Hence, Glassnode analysts confirmed a switch to net capital outflows as BTC’s price dropped below $95K.
This reversal suggests that economic uncertainty has shaken demand, decreased new inflows, and raised the likelihood of additional sell pressure and a protracted decline. This transition further supports the change from post-ATH excitement to a more mindful market condition, which implies that prospective buyers are now reluctant to withstand sell-side pressure.
Will Bitcoin Price Crash Again?
After hitting a low of $76,600 on March 11, Bitcoin has reached $83K today after a minor uptick in market sentiment. Given that the BTC/USD pair couldn’t maintain the $84K price level, it is unclear if the Bitcoin price will continue to decline in the coming days.
With outflows of more than $1.5 billion over the past two weeks, spot Bitcoin ETFs have significantly influenced the cryptocurrency’s price decline since late February.
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Bitcoin Demand Continues to Weaken
On-chain data shows that BTC demand is still low, suggesting investors’ risk appetite has decreased. After President Donald Trump’s victory drove growth through November 2024 and December 2024, the apparent demand for Bitcoin fell from 279,000 BTC on December 4 to 10K on February 26.
The metric went negative on February 27 for the first time since September 2024 and is currently at -93K. Should the trend persist, BTC’s price could decline further, similar to July 2024.
However, this trend doesn’t always guarantee the direction of BTC’s price. For instance, it was negative in late May 2024 and late October 2024, while BTC’s price increased by 7% and 73%, respectively.
Bitcoin Valuation Indicators Point to a More Significant Correction
According to CryptoQuant, several valuation indices remain negative, indicating that a more significant drop in BTC’s price may be imminent. A momentum metric called the bull/bear market cycle indicator calculates the difference between the Profit and Loss Index and its 365-day moving average.
At this point, the Bitcoin bull-bear market indicator is at its most bearish level. Bitcoin is on an upward trend when this indicator’s value is above zero and in a bear market when it is below zero.
The present value of -0.067 is the lowest since May 2023, coinciding with the steady rise in BTC’s price. On-chain data shows that Bitcoin’s price is trading within a negative continuation pattern, suggesting a possible correction may happen soon.
